The monarchy is way above political conflicts. Even though the Queen went to one of PAD protesters, the monarchy is still much loved in the rural.

I suspect that Thaksin uses the opportunity of the unhealthy King to speak up to get back in the politics because he’s the only one who could say stop, morally not legally.

I think it’s fair enough for the King not to get involved this time. Thais should learn to sort their problems. Court is working on it although they don’t have moral power as much as the King.

Do I answer your question?

The Prime Minister is trapped in northeast Thailand. Frogblog Thaidings witnessed a government rally in that part of the country:

“Spend a few hours in their presence and you soon end up with a completely different impression. These are people that are genuinely worried about the possibility of their democratic right to vote being taken away.

They are disgusted by PAD’s antics in Bangkok, and the occupation of the airports there in particular. They appreciate the damage being done both to Thailand’s reputation and to its economy. Many of them live in borderline poverty, so the slightest set-back can leave them struggling to survive on a day-to-day basis. They feel insulted and degraded by the suggestion that they are simply too stupid and lacking in education to vote for the right reasons.”

He was referring to the proposal of PAD to modify the method of choosing the country’s leaders since they think the poor do not vote wisely during elections.

There’s a rumour doing the rounds that Thailand’s Constitutional Court will disband the People Power Party, which would give the army a more-or-less valid reason to take control and call fresh elections. I guess we’ll find out later today.

One of reasons Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej is so highly regarded is that he’s steered Thailand through such a tumultuous period since WWII without the country completely disintegrating — especially when compared with neighbouring Burma/Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.

Nevertheless the King turns 81 this week, and his health is not the best. Will his son the Crown Prince follow with similarly subtle political skills?

Interestingly, the Wikipedia article on PAD says:

The Asian Human Rights Commission has noted of the PAD and their agenda that, “although they may not describe themselves as fascist, have fascist qualities.” Citing the claimed failure of popular democracy in Thailand, the PAD has suggested constitutional amendments that would make Parliament a largely royally-appointed body… It has openly called for the military and Thailand’s traditional elite to take a greater role in politics.

All is not as it seems…

Next question that I hope doesn’t get you into trouble.

Recently an Australian was arrested for negative comments in regards to the Thai Royal Family (link not right at hand)

And you have stated that the Thai Royal Family is “much loved”. It seems that PAD are somehow involved; what about the large rural populace who voted in Thaksin? Are they traditionalist/royalist per se?

If this is a demonstration-by-proxy (ie: PAD forcing change, not Royal Family directly) … it sorta is obvious that the Army would go-gentle on the demonstrators. ie: polite use of Tear Gas vs. NATO-standard bullets.

The struggle for power is between the commercial/populist TRT (or Thaksin Rak Bhat LOL) and traditionalist/loyalist Royal Family … in broad terms …

… however, I will take into account ‘Pongs perspective that this is not a pure A-vs-B thing … so knowing some of the other grey areas would be great.

Nick

Yes, the TRT is all about the money. Thaksin, with his personal lazy billion(s), could find persuasive campaigns. And, to his government’s credit, the rural village rejuvenation programs really do seem to have improved the lives of many rural poor. I remember seeing some of the results at a Thai trade fair here in Sydney — the new village-based industries were getting solid international promotion.

As I said before, rural Thais would still see bribery and kickbacks in those property development and telco deals as “normal business practice”. And they’d see PAD as spoiled, selfish rich folk from the city who can’t accept the election result.

@Nick Hodge: The King is the commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai Army.

Interestingly, AFP and other news agencies are saying that PAD is supported by “elements of the palace”. Not “possibly” or “assumed to be”, but a definite “are”.

In a totally unprecedented event, the Queen attended the funeral of a PAD demonstrator killed on 7 October. She also held a private conversation with one of the PAD leaders, who later said — alas, I can’t find the story just now — that they only spoke about “an unimportant personal matter”. Sure.

Thanks for explaining the current state of affairs in Thailand to me in a simple manner. Excellent read: I was not aware that Thaksin was the puppeteer.

It seems to me that the power lies in the hands of the Royal family and the army. In the Thai constitution (for what its worth) — who controls the army?

Nick

PAD protesters are still occupying Suvarnabhumi international airport, which is eerily quiet with operations shut down. CNN reporter Dan Rivers is surprised no-one has looted the duty-free plaza, but then he obviously doesn’t understand Thai politeness.

He does note that he could just walk around the airport. Customs and security checkpoints are unmanned, a risk to aviation security.

The police have been unsuccessful in their attempts to clear the airport — but then their actions have been amazingly restrained by Thai standards. ’Pong has previously said, “Oh they’re gassing the crowd, how polite.” He wasn’t being sarcastic: in the past, the police would have just opened fire. No-one was hurt in yesterday’s police advance and, as I said, the police lost control of one checkpoint and some vehicles.

One analysis I’ve read (not on the web) noted that police chief General Patcharawat Wongsuwanbut wasn’t exactly a fan of prime minister Somchai Wongsawat and was resisting carrying out his emergency-decree orders — but then he was sacked on Friday and there are still plenty of Thaksin loyalists in the Royal Thai Police.

There has been a grenade attack at Government House, wounding 46 — presumably pro-Thaksin forces attempting to scare off the PAD occupiers. However PAD leaders say their people are not afraid.

What happens next probably depends on PAD’s actions, and on how eager the police are to carry out orders to clear the airport. PAD have agreed to talk, but have said they will not vacate the airport unless Somchai resigns — that’s non-negotiable, they say. But every day the airport is closed costs Thailand big money.

The police will eventually be ordered to clear the airport by force — but will they obey? If not, then the PM has clearly lost control of all his security forces, as the army has clearly said it will not intervene.

The latest news from Bangkok is that police fired some shots at Suvarnabhumi airport this morning, but their advance was repelled by PAD occupiers. I also heard that cellphones at the airport were cut off just before the police moved in.

The police have lost a checkpoint, and two trucks captured by PAD. One police officer was also captured and taken into the airport for “questioning”.

The BBC’s Quentin Sommerville in Bangkok says that Mr Somchai has already lost the confidence of his army chief, Gen Anupong Paochinda, and rumours of a coup are circling in the capital…

Correspondents say the airport protesters appear increasingly isolated and are losing the support of their traditional sympathisers, the business elite.

The airport closure will cost the country around US$4bn (£2.6bn) in lost business and cause serious damage to its reputation as a tourist destination, something from which it will take the country years to recover, say analysts.

Night has just fallen in Bangkok…