Comments on: The Narrowing, (not) by Dean Koontz http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/ All publication is a political act. All communication is propaganda. All art is pornography. All business is personal. All hail Eris. Vive le poisson rouge sauvages! Fri, 29 Aug 2008 06:04:24 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Stilgherrian http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8945 Stilgherrian Fri, 16 Nov 2007 04:01:07 +0000 http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8945 <strong>@Marc Lehmann:</strong> There was a comment in <em>Crikey</em> the other day (look it up yourselves, people!) to the effect that if the polls are this certain about Rudd winning, then there's still some good prices to be had. OTOH, as of right now Rudd has narrowed to $1.28 on <a href="http://www.centrebet.com">Centrebet</a>. And they've turned their home page into two big "Bet Now!" buttons. @Marc Lehmann: There was a comment in Crikey the other day (look it up yourselves, people!) to the effect that if the polls are this certain about Rudd winning, then there’s still some good prices to be had.

OTOH, as of right now Rudd has narrowed to $1.28 on Centrebet. And they’ve turned their home page into two big “Bet Now!” buttons.

]]> By: Marc Lehmann http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8935 Marc Lehmann Wed, 14 Nov 2007 11:25:50 +0000 http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8935 I was surfing Dynamic Business website today (they were pitching add space to us) and i hit a Howard versus Rudd poll. For what you would think is a right of center user base of that website that poll still had Rudd ahead 5 points. That's about when I thought I should hit the centrebet website only to see a dead cert $1.35 price vs $3.20 for Libs. That's the trader in me :) I was surfing Dynamic Business website today (they were pitching add space to us) and i hit a Howard versus Rudd poll. For what you would think is a right of center user base of that website that poll still had Rudd ahead 5 points. That’s about when I thought I should hit the centrebet website only to see a dead cert $1.35 price vs $3.20 for Libs. That’s the trader in me :)

]]> By: Stilgherrian http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8932 Stilgherrian Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:41:43 +0000 http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8932 <strong>@Marc Lehmann:</strong> Oh absolutely, even the half-subject of statistics I did some million and a half years ago told me that linear regressions are pretty much useless when dealing with data that doesn't change in linear ways. Still, it's useful to give an indicator of "Is it going up or down?" I think the real message of the graph is the one the analysts have been saying all along: the polls are consistently showing Labor to be roughly 10 percentage points ahead of the Coalition, and they have been all year. @Marc Lehmann: Oh absolutely, even the half-subject of statistics I did some million and a half years ago told me that linear regressions are pretty much useless when dealing with data that doesn’t change in linear ways. Still, it’s useful to give an indicator of “Is it going up or down?”

I think the real message of the graph is the one the analysts have been saying all along: the polls are consistently showing Labor to be roughly 10 percentage points ahead of the Coalition, and they have been all year.

]]> By: Marc Lehmann http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8929 Marc Lehmann Tue, 13 Nov 2007 10:38:35 +0000 http://stilgherrian.com/politics/the_narrowing/#comment-8929 I noticed that if the starting point of the data was the 19th of October instead of the 15th then possibly the regression would be widening instead of narrowing. I remember from my trading days regression lines were very bad predictors because of starting points and chosen data set. Just an aside :) That said, there's 5 points of pain for the Libs consistently sitting there! Ouch! I noticed that if the starting point of the data was the 19th of October instead of the 15th then possibly the regression would be widening instead of narrowing. I remember from my trading days regression lines were very bad predictors because of starting points and chosen data set. Just an aside :)

That said, there’s 5 points of pain for the Libs consistently sitting there! Ouch!

]]>