Stilgherrian » malcolm turnbull

Representative Democracy

Stilgherrian — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 22:55:11 +0000

Here’s a nice antidote to the Coalition TV advert trying to scare us about [gasp!] the Labor party having links to trade unions.

Interestingly, it’s another election-related video that doesn’t have “real” names and addresses at the end saying where it came from. I wonder whether the Australian Electoral Commission will be attempting to prosecute any of these folks for this apparent breach.

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All Hail Malcolm the Second

Stilgherrian — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 00:51:43 +0000

“If we are fortunate, Malcolm Turnbull will be the next Liberal Prime Minister of Australia,” says Mercurius Goldstein at Online Opinion. I mentioned once that Turnbull would be the Liberals’ best leadership choice. Goldstein explains just why that’s the case — and along the way presents a magnificent essay on the nature of compromise in politics. Some of those whingeing about Peter Garrett this week should read and consider every word. Thanks to Larvartus Prodeo for the pointer.

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The Leadership (Non)-Challenge

Stilgherrian — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 22:15:08 +0000

When I returned to focus on politics after a busy morning yesterday, I discovered that not only was John Howard still PM, but also that there was never a leadership challenge. Really. How can this be?

I happened to read Crikey first, where Christian Kerr wrote:

Nothing happened in Canberra this morning. Nothing in a Samuel Beckett sort of way. A nothing that means plenty. A nothing that is quite profound.

You’ve right there, Christian! Every newsroom and every politics junkie in the country including myself arced up — prepared, as I said, for the biggest political story in a decade. And then come the time, Howard et al strolled out of the party room meeting as if nothing had happened.

Finally, at 12:45, Tony Abbott appeared. There had been “full and frank discussions”, he said, but there was “absolutely rock solid support for the Prime Minister”.

And then I read Annabel Crabb’s explanation, which helped make sense of it for me:

The past few days of leadership destabilisation in the Liberal Party has exposed an obvious complication: none of the Libs are any good at it.

They are deeply, vastly and irredeemably out of practice, in fact, and it shows.

Every time a tiny public jab is made against the Prime Minister, a great squeal goes up and everybody dashes for cover, and shooshes each other until the next poke of the stick occurs. Honestly, it’s like watching a pack of seven-year-old girls going at a brown snake…

The unprecedented turnout in the press galleries, which Kim Beazley later likened to “three rows of crows, waiting for the sheep to die, yum-yum” was unwarranted; it really was an uneventful hour.

After question time, ministers scurried away lest they be approached for a comment.

All, that is, but Peter Costello who remained for a few words with Malcolm Turnbull, while delighted Labor MPs shrieked at the pair to “take it outside”. If this were the Labor Party, someone’s head would be on a stick by now, and the victors would be on their second round of duck pancakes…

The whole piece is worth a read. And she’s 100% right. Somehow, “insiders” at Alexander Downer and Malcolm Turnbull’s offices convinced Sky New that it’s on. And then the frightened schoolgirls quickly deny it, lest Big Strong Daddy get angry.

John Winston Howard: The Biography makes it clear that Howard is a tactical genius at understanding the numbers game of building political support, and a master of the telephone. That’s why the man who was once a mere 18% in the opinion polls has become the second-longest serving PM in Australia’s history. And the 48 hours before yesterday’s party meeting would have been no exception.

Yesterday Big Strong Daddy convinced everyone that if the ship is in danger of sinking, fast, then the last thing they need is any perception of disunity. And he’s right.

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Game on!

Stilgherrian — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 23:55:02 +0000

So, will Malcolm Turnbull (left) be Prime Minister by tomorrow? Sky News has just reported that foreign minister Alexander Downer and environment minister Malcolm Turnbull no longer believe Prime Minister John Howard should lead the Liberals.

Sky News says both of them have spoken to John Howard about the leadership. I’m listening to ABC News Radio just now, though, and they say Howard’s denying the conversations took place.

Someone here is lying: Turnbull and Downer, Sky News, or John Howard. Now which of those has the best track rcord for being truthful, eh?

It certainly appears like it’s game on for a leadership challenge. If so, coming just a few weeks before a federal election makes this the biggest political event of more than a decade. Every newsroom in the nation has just gone to red alert. Fun fun fun.

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Watching the government implode

Stilgherrian — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 07:29:48 +0000

How can I be expected to do any “constructive” work today when there’s such wonderful entertainment on offer: the Howard government imploding so, so fast.

Spend some time looking at this photo of John and Hyacinth (left) in happier times, the 2006 Commonwealth Games in Melbourne, because there may not be any more happy times for these two.

(Even in this photo, though, it looks like our Prime Minister would rather be somewhere else — though Hyacinth seems to be, well, excited.)

Even in the few hours since I suggested Malcolm Turnbull would be the Coalition’s best choice to fight a rearguard action, and about Howard’s submissive body language, there’s been two fascinating developments.

Crikey has published an analysis of the Liberal’s own Crosby/Textor polling, which seems to have been leaked to everyone and their dog.

[Update: Crikey has removed the article following legal requests. As of 6pm it's still online at Possums Pollytics.]

Lots of fascinating graphs, but the summary tells it all:

Howard has conceded the election, but hasn’t told his marginal seat holders.

Talk about an election being a circuit breaker is simply for internal Coalition consumption.

The Liberal leadership knows they’ve lost. They’ve conceded the election, which is why they are running a firewall strategy.

They have lost but cannot tell their own marginal seat holders because a riot will break out and turn a defeat into destruction.

Shhhh! Don’t tell them, OK?

And also today Queensland Premier Peter Beattie announced his retirement.

He has been in the top job for more than nine years and is the longest serving of all current state and territory leaders in Australia.

Mr Beattie says he believes leaders should stay in the top job for about eight years, but he stayed beyond that because he wanted to see three major projects completed or well under way…

“If governments don’t renew, they die. If parties don’t renew, they die.”

John Howard missed his chance to retire when he was at his peak. He missed his chance to retire when he’d served a nice, round 10 years. He missed his chance to retire when he became the second-longest serving PM of this country. He missed the chance to pass the baton as he supposedly agreed. Now he’s missed the chance to retire gracefully at the end of APEC and give someone, anyone, a fighting chance of salving what’s left of the Coalition government.

John Howard, for all your talk of decency and doing the “appropriate” thing, you’ve turned into Gollum. It’s to pass Your Precious to someone else.

On the other hand, do feel free to continue as you are. Because, as I say, it’s wonderful entertainment!

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Who’ll be PM on Wednesday?

Stilgherrian — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 01:04:12 +0000

It’s a good thing John Howard’s very bestest of best friends George W Bush left APEC a day early. Howard could avoid talking about yet another fall in the opinion polls.

On the cover of the recent Howard biography (left), the Man of Steel looks stern and concerned. Apt. If those poll figures are repeated on election day, even with the usual minor swing back to stability, it won’t just be a Labor victory. It’ll be a complete rout of the Liberal/National Coalition.

APEC won’t be the poll boost Howard was looking for. John’s Bestest Best Friend stumbled through his speech like a village idiot — you choose good friends, John! Kevin Rudd looked like a 21st century statesman, cracking jokes in Mandarin with the Chinese president.

Pretty much everybody is saying it’s time for Howard to go — as Annabel Crabb’s witty poem makes clear. But the Man of Steel is in his bunker, fighting to the end.

I do intend to contest [the election], I intend to contest it as leader. That question was settled last year.

In the SMH today, Peter Hartcher says the Coalition would be mad to switch leaders now. I disagree.

Hartcher says the voters dislike Peter Costello even more than Howard, which is doubtless true. But Costello isn’t the only option — and anyway he didn’t wait all this time to become PM only to lose an election a month later. Peter Coorey says Malcolm Turnbull or anyone else at this stage would guarantee disaster. Again I disagree.

This is a disaster already. Pretty much every commentator — apart from Howard’s troglodyte bunker-mates — agree the Coalition will almost certainly lose. It’s now not about winning the election but of salvaging what you can from defeat. And maybe, with a higher-risk approach, the Coalition can still snatch a victory.

If the election is, as Christian Kerr says, a battle between good economic management and the It’s Time factor, if the voters think Howard is yesterday’s man with yesterday’s vision, then they need to change that perception now.

Costello’s out. The poisonous Tony Abbott wouldn’t exactly woo the punters. Brendon Nelson just spent $6 billion on un-needed military aircraft which should have someone phoning to check with the Australian Commission Against Corruption — oh hang on, we don’t have one.

I never thought I’d ever say this. Malcolm Turnbull looks the best choice. I guess that just goes to show how completely screwed the Coalition is.

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A Night of Politics: grubby, grubby…

Stilgherrian — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 22:54:11 +0000

The entire evening was filled with politics yesterday ~~and the chafing this morning is quite painful~~ and I learned a lot.

Christian Kerr, the national affairs editor for Crikey, was promoting his book “in conversation with” Antony Green, the thinking woman’s crumpet — a combination too good to miss! We went for dinner afterwards.

I didn’t realise I’ve actually met Christian before, until he saw me. “I know you,” he said. “You were the first person to play me I Like It Both Ways with Shaun Micaleff at 5UV.” I have no recollection of this event, Your Honour. However Christian recalled sufficient details for me to be convinced the event probably did happen. Somewhere. He knew certain obscure hand gestures. Stop asking questions.

In a preview of the federal election and subsequent conversation I learned:

Christian thinks that the election won’t be fought over industrial relations, as many pundits are saying, but over the economy. It’ll be about the Howard government’s “sound economic management” (as they describe it) versus the It’s Time factor.
Unless something changes, it will be a Labor victory. For all the talk of “the polls are all over the place,” Antony Green says this is the most consistent series of polls he’s ever seen.
There is a Big Yabby in Alexander Downer’s electorate, at Goolwa, which is symbolic somehow.
Malcolm Turnbull could still win the federal seat of Wentworth thanks to his Fabulousness Factor.
No-one seems to understand why John Howard won’t support gay-related issues. And I’ve just finished reading his biography — nothing there gives a clue either.
Mattresses.
Iguanadons.

Now where’s that moisturiser…?