“I don’t do predictions,” but…

Photograph of Antony Green

Election über-analyst Antony Green (pictured) has joined his eponymous Antony Green Appreciation Society on Facebook. Asked to give an election prediction, he said:

No. If I wanted to do predictions, I would have studied astrology. Not that you have to study anything to do astrology. It’s hardly a science.

It certainly looks like it will be an interesting election. There’s only been one opinion poll this year that suggested anything less than a 6% swing. If a swing like that occurred, you’d have to have the logical skills of a Christopher Pearson to construct a scenario where the government prevented Labor gaining 16 seats. I suppose we have another few weeks breathlessly hanging on to see if there is a poll turnaround.

Maybe more than a few weeks, if the election gets strung out until December. I reckon by then we’ll all be well over it.

P.S. Watch out, Antony! There’s an echidna behind you.

iYomu: too late to beat Facebook?

iYomu logo

iYomu, that “social networking for grown ups” site I wrote about, officially launched today — with US$1M in prize money up for grabs. And I’ve just written an article for Crikey explaining why I don’t think it’ll fly. I also reckon Facebook will win out over MySpace.

My argument in the Crikey article is that the key to success on the Internet is massive, uncontrolled growth. That means attracting a lot of users fast — and then selling out to someone like Rupert Murdoch before it all implodes. The problem is, the very nature of iYomu works against that rapid growth.

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Wow, I actually networked!

Last night was weird. Not only did I see a new social networking site before it was launched, I met two very cool people who really know this stuff.

Laurel Papworth

Laurel Papworth is one of Australia’s real bloggerati. She writes regularly about online communities and how they’re Changing The World. She presented at Webjam 3, and I actually booed her presentation at a previous Webjam — and I’m looking forward to discussing our disagreement another time. Way cool.

Lee Hopkins

Lee Hopkins is a communicator from Adelaide who… well, check his website for more. He and I got along just fine once he asserted that if a PR company was paying for the wine, it was our moral duty to finish it.

Give that I hate “networking”, this is a good result. And to the others in the room, well, you were cool too but I just didn’t get to swapping cards etc. Next time.