Gotta love the Internet. If you take the analysis of today’s Newspoll figures and plug them into Antony Green’s election calculator you get this astounding result.
An ALP win, with 102 seats in the House versus just 46 for the Coalition. Antony’s sliders didn’t even allow for a swing of more than 10% but the details are correct if you click through.
As Antony said on The 7.30 Report last night, “The biggest swing Labor have achieved and won Government was the Hawke-led Labor Party in ’83 a bit over 3 per cent. At the moment we’re talking about swings of double of almost triple that kind of swing.”
3 Replies to “Today’s election prediction”
Well, well, well. What a fine Newspoll!
I’ve been interested in seeing the metro/non-metro swings for some time, as I live in Cowper, held by the Nats by 6.7%, and I figured that if the odium was all centred on Howard, then maybe the Nats’ seats would swing less – but it turns out the non-metro swing is polling higher.
And so the grand dream of our seat being the most marginal Labor seat in Australia in 2010 is still alive. 🙂
I will stay up to watch Howard’s concession speech. Looking forward to it – very much.
@Eric: I’m planning a fairly indulgent election night party with the Snarky Platypus and maybe others. Expect gradually-deteriorating grammar and spelling in our progress reports.
And yes, it will be very interesting to see exactly how J Winston H will word his speech. I expect bitterness.
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