Today’s election prediction

Predicted election results

Gotta love the Internet. If you take the analysis of today’s Newspoll figures and plug them into Antony Green’s election calculator you get this astounding result.

An ALP win, with 102 seats in the House versus just 46 for the Coalition. Antony’s sliders didn’t even allow for a swing of more than 10% but the details are correct if you click through.

As Antony said on The 7.30 Report last night, “The biggest swing Labor have achieved and won Government was the Hawke-led Labor Party in ’83 a bit over 3 per cent. At the moment we’re talking about swings of double of almost triple that kind of swing.”

A Night of Politics: grubby, grubby…

The entire evening was filled with politics yesterday and the chafing this morning is quite painful and I learned a lot.

Christian Kerr, the national affairs editor for Crikey, was promoting his book “in conversation with” Antony Green, the thinking woman’s crumpet — a combination too good to miss! We went for dinner afterwards.

I didn’t realise I’ve actually met Christian before, until he saw me. “I know you,” he said. “You were the first person to play me I Like It Both Ways with Shaun Micaleff at 5UV.” I have no recollection of this event, Your Honour. However Christian recalled sufficient details for me to be convinced the event probably did happen. Somewhere. He knew certain obscure hand gestures. Stop asking questions.

In a preview of the federal election and subsequent conversation I learned:

  • Christian thinks that the election won’t be fought over industrial relations, as many pundits are saying, but over the economy. It’ll be about the Howard government’s “sound economic management” (as they describe it) versus the It’s Time factor.
  • Unless something changes, it will be a Labor victory. For all the talk of “the polls are all over the place,” Antony Green says this is the most consistent series of polls he’s ever seen.
  • There is a Big Yabby in Alexander Downer‘s electorate, at Goolwa, which is symbolic somehow.
  • Malcolm Turnbull could still win the federal seat of Wentworth thanks to his Fabulousness Factor.
  • No-one seems to understand why John Howard won’t support gay-related issues. And I’ve just finished reading his biography — nothing there gives a clue either.
  • Mattresses.
  • Iguanadons.

Now where’s that moisturiser…?

“I don’t do predictions,” but…

Photograph of Antony Green

Election über-analyst Antony Green (pictured) has joined his eponymous Antony Green Appreciation Society on Facebook. Asked to give an election prediction, he said:

No. If I wanted to do predictions, I would have studied astrology. Not that you have to study anything to do astrology. It’s hardly a science.

It certainly looks like it will be an interesting election. There’s only been one opinion poll this year that suggested anything less than a 6% swing. If a swing like that occurred, you’d have to have the logical skills of a Christopher Pearson to construct a scenario where the government prevented Labor gaining 16 seats. I suppose we have another few weeks breathlessly hanging on to see if there is a poll turnaround.

Maybe more than a few weeks, if the election gets strung out until December. I reckon by then we’ll all be well over it.

P.S. Watch out, Antony! There’s an echidna behind you.