Waiting for Kirribilli House

Photograph of Craig Gill wearing a Kevin07 t-shirt at Kirribilli House

The meme on teh intertubes this week was some wag placing a for-sale ad for Kirribilli House on a real estate website. I must admit, though, I do prefer my photo of Craig Gill in his Kevin07 t-shirt (above) at Hyacinth’s open day.

Thanks to Royaltech (and many others!) for the pointer. And in case the advert vanishes, there’s a PDF version.

I’ve already committed democracy today. Now it’s your turn. Remember, vote early and vote often.

Ah, questions!

I was going to write a serious piece comparing the George W Bush and Ronald Reagan presidencies, and discuss the links John Howard’s time as PM. But I’ve been distracted. Instead, I’ve been looking at the questions which led people to this website.

This isn’t original. Meg Tsiamis was there first. As she observed, people find one’s website through some astounding searches.

I’ve mentioned before that the most common search bringing people here is “steve irwin jokes” — something I find quite depressing. The Top 10 includes such gems as “gerbil sex”, “royal gay sex”, “glory hole” and “bestiality”. Classy eh?

But scroll down the list’s long tail, through 580 different keyphrases so far this month alone, and you’ll find actual questions. Here, then, are some of the answers. If you can expand upon them, please do!

Continue reading “Ah, questions!”

Weekly Poll: Over the election yet?

We’ve suffered the longest pre-election campaign in Australia’s history, and then an abnormally long 6-week “official” campaign instead of the usual 5. Finally, it’s the last week before polling day. Are you over the whole thing yet?

Or are you only now deciding to get interested? Or perhaps you’re looking forward to one final orgy of campaigning. Which is it? Go to the website to vote!

[poll id=”13″]

Last week’s results: From the choices offered, most voters thought John Howard was the most disconnected from voters. Yes, Prime Minister, you are the problem, it seems. However a few people recognised that the Australian Democrats have had their day.

[Yes, I know the weekly poll hasn’t been weekly lately. It was a non-core promise. Deal with it.]

The Narrowing, (not) by Dean Koontz

Graph of two-party preferred preferences since the campaign started

The Narrowing. The idea that during an election campaign voters return to the incumbent government. Supposedly the reality of an actual vote, as opposed to mere opinion polls, triggers voters’ fear of the unknown. As this graph shows, if there is a Narrowing, it’s bloody tiny this time around.

The Narrowing is nothing but mythology.

In the 2001 campaign, Kim Beazley started from behind and gained 5% before voting day — not enough to win, but enough to give him hope for next time. That’s a shift against the incumbent party, of course.

Of course that loose-mouthed thug Mark Latham went and screwed all that up. But this time we can see what the electorate really thinks of Howard now that they’ve got a credible alternative.

As the graph from Possums Pollytics shows, yes, you can sort of see a little sign of The Narrowing. But that gentle glidepath has to cross that line marked “50”.

Yes, the Coalition might be able to claw back enough support to win. As long as the election is on 28 July 2008.

I gather the election is sooner than that.

Rediscovering the language of moderation

I’m a big fan of joined-up thinking. You know, not just looking at each individual piece, but looking at how they fit together (or not) and what that tells us about The Big Picture. But there doesn’t seem to be much joined-up thinking in contemporary Australian politics.

Take, for example, “economic management”. Senator Andrew Bartlett wrote about this very point yesterday:

The battle for bragging rights about which party is supposedly the best economic manager is faintly ludicrous, given that both sides at various times have made a point of emphasising how similar their basic tax and economic policies are to the other – with the partial exception of workplace relations. The posturing about supposedly conservative good economic management is even more absurd – and indeed somewhat alarming – when one realises that these almost identical economic policies are neither conservative nor even very coherent.

Yes. I don’t understand how these facts all fit into one coherent picture:

  • Lots of money coming in from big mining boom.
  • Schools, hospitals, roads, trains, ports all in need of “urgent” fixes.
  • Reserve Bank worried about inflationary measures.
  • $34 billion in tax cuts! Spend, spend, spend!

Bartlett quotes a piece from George Megalogenis in The Australian which ends:

The task for Australia’s political class is to rediscover the language of moderation. Leadership at this stage of a 17-year growth cycle means telling voters that they can’t have it all.

But how do you tell Howard’s Battlers, the Kath & Kims of Australia, they they can’t have it all, and that the world isn’t just about them repeating the mantra of “I want! I want!”? The answers, it seems, is that you don’t. You just stay in your state of denial and hope for the best.

The Coalition launches its re-election campaign today — yes, I know that the entire year so far therefore has not been a campaign, just some sort of cheese grater. So it’ll be interesting to see whether they’ll propose a coherent plan for Australia’s future that actually addresses these core economic issues. My money is on the “No” vote for that one.