The Snarky Platypus has just posted his prediction for the federal election. Something to read over dinner, and I daresay I’ll have a response in the morning.
Labor’s better economics qualifications
The Labor party a risk to the economy? Perhaps not, since eight of their front bench have degrees in economics — including Craig Emerson with a PhD — while only three Coalition ministers have the qualifications.
Nixon & Kissinger on Reagan: “His brains are negligible”
Richard Nixon’s White House tapes continue to amuse. Here’s an exchange between him and then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
President Nixon: What’s your evaluation of Reagan after meeting him several times now.
Kissinger: Well, I think he’s a… actually I think he’s a pretty decent guy.
President Nixon: Oh, decent, no question, but his brains
Kissinger: Well, his brains, are negligible. I…
President Nixon: He’s really pretty shallow, Henry.
Kissinger: He’s shallow. He’s got no… he’s an actor. He… When he gets a line he does it very well. He said, “Hell, people are remembered not for what they do, but for what they say. Can’t you find a few good lines?” [Chuckles.] That’s really an actor’s approach to foreign policy.
Hat tip to Marc Andreessen. I’ve cleaned up the punctuation a bit.
Weekly Poll: Over the election yet?
We’ve suffered the longest pre-election campaign in Australia’s history, and then an abnormally long 6-week “official” campaign instead of the usual 5. Finally, it’s the last week before polling day. Are you over the whole thing yet?
Or are you only now deciding to get interested? Or perhaps you’re looking forward to one final orgy of campaigning. Which is it? Go to the website to vote!
[poll id=”13″]
Last week’s results: From the choices offered, most voters thought John Howard was the most disconnected from voters. Yes, Prime Minister, you are the problem, it seems. However a few people recognised that the Australian Democrats have had their day.
[Yes, I know the weekly poll hasn’t been weekly lately. It was a non-core promise. Deal with it.]
Greens to support computer games industry
Today The Greens are launching a policy to support the computer games industry in Australia.
There was a story earlier this year that the gaming industry is now bigger than the film industry. That’s only true if you compare the whole gaming industry with just film box-office sales and ignore DVD sales and rentals, exports and other non-cinema income. Still, it does make a point: gaming is a lot bigger than most people realise.
The gaming industry wants the same tax breaks as the film industry. I figure that to be consistent, yes, either they both get these breaks or they both don’t.
The Narrowing, (not) by Dean Koontz
The Narrowing. The idea that during an election campaign voters return to the incumbent government. Supposedly the reality of an actual vote, as opposed to mere opinion polls, triggers voters’ fear of the unknown. As this graph shows, if there is a Narrowing, it’s bloody tiny this time around.
The Narrowing is nothing but mythology.
In the 2001 campaign, Kim Beazley started from behind and gained 5% before voting day — not enough to win, but enough to give him hope for next time. That’s a shift against the incumbent party, of course.
Of course that loose-mouthed thug Mark Latham went and screwed all that up. But this time we can see what the electorate really thinks of Howard now that they’ve got a credible alternative.
As the graph from Possums Pollytics shows, yes, you can sort of see a little sign of The Narrowing. But that gentle glidepath has to cross that line marked “50”.
Yes, the Coalition might be able to claw back enough support to win. As long as the election is on 28 July 2008.
I gather the election is sooner than that.