A Picture of a Ruddslide

Mumble Poll Mix, 23 March to 23 September 2007

Earlier today I nearly choked. Despite Kevin Rudd making some minor tactical errors, despite squillions of our dollars being spent on government propaganda, Labor’s primary vote has reached its highest level since Kevin Rudd took over the leadership last year.

54%! Factor in preferences and that means the 2-party-preferred (2PP) vote is 60.5% to 39.5% Labor’s way. Astounding!

The graph (right) shows Peter Brent’s meta-analysis of all the major polls for the last six months. Clearly, all this talk of “a swing back to Howard” is crap. They’re just little wiggles in a much bigger picture that tells a very clear story.

There’s always a big gap in the middle of at least 10 percentage points.

Brent reckons the weighted aggregate 2PP vote is 56.5 to 43.5 in Labor’s favour. If so, Labor wins two-thirds of the seats in Parliament.

There’s lot more numbers and graphs at Mumble Elections and Possums Pollytics.

2 Replies to “A Picture of a Ruddslide”

  1. The poll figures are good – not big enough to cause more leadership panic, but still showing a massive landslide.

    While entirely unrealistic, I hope polling day gives us something like a 59-41 2PP for the ALP, because it would teach politicians a lesson about delaying the inevitable.

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