Any moment now, Donald Trump might cancel AUKUS, the massive defence agreement which among other things would see Australia buying eight nuclear-powered submarines. AUKUS has become the big thing in Australia’s defence procurement, but do we need it? Sam Roggeveen thinks not, and he’s our guest today.
Sam is director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. In former life he was an intelligence analyst for the Office of National Assessments, now the Office of National Assessments. And he’s the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace.
In this episode we discuss the two competing schools of thought on defence policy, the defence of Australia school versus the forward defence school. We talk about what the actual threats from China might be. We look at what the echidna strategy might look like in practice. And much more.
This podcast is available on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Castbox, Deezer, Google Podcasts, iHeartRadio, JioSaavn, Pocket Casts, Podcast Addict, Podchaser, Spotify, and Speaker.
You can also subscribe to the generic podcast feed.
Episode Links
-
Sam Roggeveen is Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace, published by La Trobe University Press in 2023.
-
The Echidna Strategy overturns the conventional wisdom about Australia's security. Australia will need to defend itself without American help, but this doesn't need to cost more. The truth, which no Australian political leader is willing to confront, is that America's security is not threatened by China's rise. Once we accept that conclusion, the entire edifice on which our security has been built crumbles, and we need to start afresh.
-
[16 September 2021] The US, the UK and Australia have announced they are setting up a trilateral security partnership aimed at confronting China, which will include helping Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines. US President Joe Biden, UK prime minister Boris Johnson and Australian prime minister Scott Morrison announced the deal together virtually.
-
[June 2025] What does the AUKUS deal really say about Australia’s long-term defence policy?
-
[14 March 2023] From as early as the 2030s, delivery of three US Virginia class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia – ensuring there is no capability gap. Australia and the UK will deliver SSN-AUKUS, a new conventionally-armed nuclear-powered submarine, based on a UK design, incorporating cutting edge Australian, UK and US technologies. The UK will deliver its own first SSN-AUKUS in the late 2030s, with the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia delivered in the early 2040s.
-
The Virginia class, or the SSN-774 class, is a class of nuclear-powered attack submarine with cruise missile capability in service with the United States Navy. The class is designed for a broad spectrum of open-ocean and littoral missions, including anti-submarine warfare and intelligence gathering operations.
-
The SSN-AUKUS, also known as the SSN-A,[2] is a planned class of nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) intended to enter service with the United Kingdom's Royal Navy in the late 2030s and Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s. The class will replace the UK's Astute-class and Australia's Collins-class submarines.
-
[4 December 2024] The Virginia-class submarines are facing construction delays and are now years behind schedule, complicating the Navy’s ability to field much-needed submarines.
-
The Collins-class submarines are Australian-built diesel-electric submarines operated by the Royal Australian Navy (RAN)... The six vessels were the first submarines built in Australia, prompting widespread improvements in Australian industry and delivering a sovereign (Australian controlled) sustainment/maintenance capability.
-
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or even the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States.
-
Enter two or more airports to draw a route between them on the map and calculate the distance.
-
Find somewhere new and interesting to explore that's only a few hours drive from your hometown. Plan a day trip or a weekend getaway, and escape from your city to discover nearby places. Search in any direction based on travel time or driving distance to find local towns and things to do. [While this measures driving distance, not direct air distance, it's still handy for getting a feel for the distances involved.]
-
[8 November 2022] Finally, it’s time to talk about submarines. The spring series of The 9pm Edict continues with a conversation about what submarines in the 21st century can and can’t do with defence analyst and illustrator H I Sutton of Covert Shores.
-
[7 March 2025] Since at least 11 February, Australia and New Zealand have been tracking a group of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships, referred to as Task Force 107 by the Australian Department of Defence, near Australia.
-
[25 March 2025] Australians were recently given a wake-up call to China’s burgeoning blue-water naval capabilities, as a Chinese naval task force conducted multiple unannounced live-fire exercises in the seas between Australia and New Zealand, and then essentially circumnavigated the continent on their way home.Â
-
[7 March 2025] The appearance of three Chinese warships in waters off Australia has sparked serious questions about Beijing’s intentions and our nation's readiness to defend itself.
-
[24 February 2025] Provocations such as the PLA’s weapons drills are the moments when Australia must channel its unique geographical power.
-
Iron Dome (Hebrew: כִּפַּת בַּרְזֶל, romanized: Kippat Barzel) is an Israeli mobile all-weather air defense system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries. The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of 4 to 70 kilometres (2–43 mi) away and whose trajectory would take them to an Israeli populated area.
-
The Fijian coups d'Ă©tat of 1987 resulted in the overthrow of the elected government of Fijian Prime Minister Timoci Bavadra, the deposition of Elizabeth II as Queen of Fiji, and in the declaration of a republic. The first coup d'Ă©tat, in which Bavadra was deposed, took place on 14 May 1987; a second coup d'Ă©tat on 25 September ended the monarchy, and was shortly followed by the proclamation of a republic on 10 October. Both military actions were led by Lieutenant Colonel Sitiveni Rabuka, then third in command of the Royal Fiji Military Forces.
-
The Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), also known as Operation Helpem Fren, Operation Anode and Operation Rata (by New Zealand), began in 2003 in response to a request for international aid by the Governor-General of Solomon Islands. Helpem Fren means "help a friend" in Solomon Islands Pidgin. The mission officially ended on 30 June 2017.
-
Operation Trikora (Indonesian: Operasi Trikora) was a combined Soviet–Indonesian military operation which aimed to seize and annex the Dutch overseas territory of New Guinea in 1961 and 1962. After negotiations, the Netherlands signed the New York Agreement with Indonesia on 15 August 1962, relinquishing control of Western New Guinea to the United Nations
-
[9 February 2015] This article shows that during the 1962 West New Guinea Crisis the Soviet Union played a much more active military role than previously assumed. Khrushchev secretly supplied Indonesia with Soviet manned submarines and bombers and was prepared for these units to participate in an Indonesian attack against the Dutch. The Soviets also helped the Indonesians draw up operational plans. This deployment fits into a pattern of covert Soviet military interventions in the developing world between 1960 and 1962 and suggests that in some cases Khrushchev was prepared to use Soviet military units to support wars of national liberation in the developing world.
-
[7 December 2017] The Russian Air Force has for the first time sent strategic bombers to visit an airport in eastern Indonesia on Tuesday, as the Russian military increases its presence in Southeast Asia following years of relative inactivity.
-
[4 June 2025] On June 1, Ukraine launched drone attacks against strategic airbases across Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that the strikes—dubbed Operation “Spider’s Web”—damaged or destroyed 34 percent of Russia’s strategic cruise missile–carrying bomber fleet. [This figure is the proportion of the fleet which can carry cruise missiles, whereas Sam cites there total figure for long-range aircraft.]
-
[7 July 2025] The 30 days reportedly set aside for the Pentagon’s review have almost expired. An alliance crisis could be next.
If the links aren’t showing up, try here.
Thank you, Media Freedom Citizenry
The 9pm Edict is supported by the generosity of its listeners. You can always throw a few coins into the tip jar or subscribe for special benefits. Please consider.
For this episode it’s thanks again to everyone who supported The 9pm Mid-2025 Series crowdfunding campaign.
CONVERSATION TOPICS: Joanna Forbes, Peter Viertel, and one person who chooses to remain anonymous.
THREE TRIGGER WORDS: Bernard Walsh, Paul Williams, and Peter Lieverdink.
WE WILL, WE WILL JUDGE YOU, part of Another Untitled Music Podcast: Bic Smith, Gavin Costello, stabfish, and one person who chooses to remain anonymous.
ONE TRIGGER WORD: Andrew Best, Ashley Walsh, Bic Smith, David Porteous, Frank Filippone, Jamie Morrison, Jim Campbell, Kym Yeap, Mark Newton, Michael, Mindy Johnson, Miriam Faye, Nicole Coombe, Oliver Townshend, Peter Blakeley, Peter McCrudden, Peter Wickins, Ric Hayman, Stephen Collins, Tom Carding, and one person who chooses to remain anonymous.
PERSONALISED VIDEO MESSAGE: Briala Bowmer.
PERSONALISED AUDIO MESSAGE: Kimberley Heitman, KO Hall, and Matt Arkell.
FOOT SOLDIERS FOR MEDIA FREEDOM who gave a SLIGHTLY LESS BASIC TIP: Andrew B, Craig Askings, Errol Cavit, James Henstridge, Lindsay, Lucas James, Peter Blakeley, and one person who chooses to remain anonymous.
MEDIA FREEDOM CITIZENS who contributed a BASIC TIP: None this time, which is curious.
And another seven people who chose to have no reward at all, even though some of them were the most generous of all. Thank you all so much. You know who you are.
Series Credits
- The 9pm Edict theme by mansardian via The Freesound Project.
- Edict fanfare by neonaeon, via The Freesound Project.
- Elephant Stamp theme by Joshua Mehlman.